PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE – December 2024

PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE

An earlier version of this article appeared in Ha’aretz on Dec. 3 (before Assad fell)

Despite His Destructive Instincts,

Trump May Not Be That Bad for the Middle East

Paul Scham

Dec 13, 2024

As an American with strong ties to Israel and its disheartened peace movement, I am naturally dismayed and dejected by the election of Donald Trump to a second term as President. I am concerned about the destructive inclinations abroad, and about his negative (to say the least) effect on democracy at home. 

But to my own surprise, I am beginning to think it’s possible that his accession may have some positive effects on the current fraught situation in the Middle East and, contrary to some warnings by friends, there are currently various reasons for cautious optimism, at least in the short run. Let me stress that I would have much preferred if Kamala Harris had won – and I will be the first to admit I am wrong if the Middle East goes south after January 20. 

Clearly, Israel’s primary mission, now that there is a (seemingly successful) cease-fire in place in Lebanon, must be to bring home the survivors among the 101 hostages still held as soon as possible, and, to accomplish that, Israel must agree to leave Gaza and free a (probably large) number of Palestinian prisoners. It should move forward on that mission without delay, and I assume the main reason it hasn’t done so, in spite of the apparent urging of the Israel Defense Forces high command, is the baneful and decisive influence of Ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir over the prime minister, and their credible threats to bring down the current coalition. 

My prediction is that, nevertheless, Israel will agree to some sort of deal by January 20. Why? Because Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will point out to Smotrich and Ben-Gvir that there is a new sheriff in town, who has made it clear that he wants current wars over with before his inauguration, and that Israel needs to stay on his good side, something they clearly do not care about with President Biden. Trump has proclaimed there will be ALL HELL TO PAY if the hostages are not released by January 20. For that reason or not, there seems to be optimism regarding a fairly imminent cease-fire.

Since this article was originally published, the Fall of the House of Assad has changed political, diplomatic, and military calculations in ways that will be evolving and in directions no one can predict.  Trump (actually predictably enough), has sternly ordered, “DO NOT GET INVOLVED,” but that is impossible, and not only because of the 900 US soldiers already on the ground in the northeast of the country, tasked primarily with forestalling a resurgence of ISIS.  Immediate consequences are virtually all favorable for the US under whatever administration, including serious humiliation for Russia, Assad’s patron since 2015, even if it gets to keep its naval base at Latakia; loss by Iran of the only state-member of its axis of resistance (or “ring of fire”), into which it had poured huge amounts of money, men, and materiel for support during and after the brutal Syrian civil war; isolation for Hezbollah by ending its supply route through Syria; and joy for Israel because of all of the above, besides taking credit for creating the situation giving rise to Assad’s fall.  There is general satisfaction at the flight of a dictator whose brutality greatly exceeded even the the norm tacitly accepted among Mideast potentates.  The Trump administration will have to factor all of these into its policy even if it seeks to retrench. Israel has already seized the buffer zone that separated its troops from the now-nonexistent Syrian army and virtually destroyed Syrian offensive capability in a coordinated series of 350 airstrikes all over Syria; the new regime has no way to respond.

American Iran expert Vali Nasr thinks the time may be ripe for an Iran-US rapprochement, while the Times of Israel reports Trump is weighing options for a renewed maximum pressure campaign, as long as it can be done without plunging into war, Trump’s seemingly most important criterion. 

Even with regard to preventing attempts by Israel to annex the West Bank and retain Gaza there are some grounds for optimism. Of course it is concerning that Trump’s first appointment was Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel. Huckabee has no Mideast or, indeed, any international experience or expertise; he is a devout Evangelical Christian and strong supporter of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich’s agenda. 

Nevertheless, any annexation plans will unquestionably be strongly opposed by all Arab countries, very much including the Persian Gulf monarchies, and particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The UAE is the one Arab country with diplomatic relations with Israel that has not withdrawn its ambassador, and it has been more sparing than any other Arab government in its criticism of Israel. 

Moreover, both their leaders were close to Trump in his first term (remember the sword dance!) and there is no reason to think that has changed, especially since neither went out of his way to be over-friendly to Biden. Thus, Smotrich’s plans that “2025 is the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria” are likely to be foiled. The Saudi and UAE autocrats have no love for the Palestinians, but since October 7, they know that support for a Palestinian state is a requirement for every Arab leader, while their U.S. and Israeli counterparts, listening to the siren song of fulfillment of the Abraham Accords, are unlikely to ruin their relationship through untimely annexation.

It is indeed likely that Trump will attack and sanction the International Criminal Court over its issuance of arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Gallant – and it is cold comfort that Biden has also sharply criticized the ICC’s decision. There is a path for Israel to potentially get them withdrawn, but that would involve creating a full scale investigative commission, a proposition that scares Netanyahu to death, so it is highly unlikely under any government he heads. Trump, who hates any constraint on his power, especially if internationally inspired, will probably work with Israel to defy the ICC, as Harris might possibly also have done.

Finally, there is the vital issue of Netanyahu’s attack on Israeli democracy, the opposition to which is likely to be revived in the streets well before the next election. This is something that Israelis alone can control. We who live abroad can and will cheer on Israeli democracy from the sidelines but even if Democratic office-holders do likewise, the effects are negligible. Trump’s looming presence will do the cause of democracy no good anywhere; however, Biden’s loud and active support for international democracy has had very little positive effect. Israel and the rest of the world will have to do their best to endure a second Trump presidency, but it is primarily up to each individual country to maintain its own democratic institutions.

Thus, it is with mixed feelings that I conclude that the incoming Trump presidency will probably not immediately help the plans of the far right to extend Israeli control and advance its agenda, and fear of Trump’s wrath may well obstruct them. The record shows that the Biden administration, with an agenda (after October 7, 2023) that supposedly focused on limiting and curtailing violence, was not particularly successful. Even its main accomplishment, the recent Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire, is being partly credited by some to Trump’s second coming.

God help us all. 

AFTERWORD

 The Trump administration, and everyone else concerned about the Middle East, are being suddenly presented with an explosive issue that all of them were sure would remain quiescent for at least the immediate future.  Instead, the overthrow of the brutal (even by Mideast standards) Assad family dictatorship should give rise to some joy among even the most cynical observers (namely, Israelis).  Apparently  it has not.  As of Dec. 16, “Israel has struck Syria more than 450 times since the collapse of the Assad government” according to the reliable Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, in an effort to eliminate any possible Syrian offensive capability. It has also (“temporarily”) occupied the buffer zone that has existed since 1974, as well as the Syrian side of Mt. Hermon and perhaps more.  While Israel has every right to be concerned with major political changes on its border, serious unilateral violations of international law and practice now seem to have become ingrained in the current Israeli government’s DNA.  It is already on the road to pariah status as far as many UN states are concerned; it is very much against its own interests to go further along that highway to hell.  Israel has long since shed its youthful “David” image; and Goliath doesn’t get much leeway.  It seems clear that most of the world is giving the victorious Hayat Tahrir al-Shams  (HTS) the benefit of the doubt; Israel, as an actual neighbor, should do likewise, which means an immediate halt to both bombing and land-grabs, and a retreat in the very near future from the latter.”Good fences make good neighbors,” but multiple bombings definitely do not.