Unexpected Consequences: Israel Enjoys the Fall of the Assad Regime
Blog Post by Paul Scham
Please Note: This piece is adapted from a briefing shared earlier this week from the Middle East Institute
- Israel takes credit for weakening Hezbollah and Iran over the past year, paving the way for the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s lightning offensive.
- Israel Defense Forces occupy deserted Syrian positions in the Golan Heights buffer zone as the United States and Israel bomb military and Islamic State targets in Syria.
There is little doubt that the 10-day offensive by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other groups that culminated in the flight of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the collapse of his government was precipitated by Israel’s crippling assault on Hezbollah, commencing with the pager explosions on Sept. 17, followed by its humiliating attacks on Iran’s military infrastructure on Oct. 27. Nevertheless, neither Israel’s Mossad nor any Western intelligence agency apparently had any inkling that the fall of the House of Assad was imminent.
As it became apparent on Thursday and Friday that Damascus was about to fall to the rebels, Israel strengthened its military deployment on the Golan Heights. On Sunday, Israeli infantry and armored units pushed beyond the 1974 disengagement lines and occupied deserted positions on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, “as well as several other locations deemed essential for stabilizing control of the area.” The Times of Israel reported that Defense Minister Yisrael Katz on Sunday ordered the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) “to create a ‘security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terror infrastructure’ in southern Syria, including beyond the buffer zone, that could pose a threat to Israel.”
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar tweeted on Saturday that Israeli forces had entered the buffer zone because attacks had been carried out against United Nations monitors and that Israel feared violations of the 1974 lines might occur. In a briefing on Monday, he reiterated the reasons for the air strikes and emphasized that “the IDF has taken a limited and temporary control of strategic areas near the border to prevent a scenario similar to October 7th occurring from Syria.”
The Washington Post and many other sources are reporting that since Sunday Israel has carried out at least 350 air strikes attempting to destroy the offensive elements of Syria’s military, lest it fall into the hands of those who might be Islamist militants who might use them against Israel. The U.N. special envoy to Syria and the Saudi Foreign Ministry are among many official figures who have protested the bombing and said it must stop immediately. Israel is obviously seeing a window of opportunity in the current chaos to prevent a military threat from Syria in the near future, but Syrian civilians are angry at the explosions around the country.
Israel has stated its forces would withdraw to the agreed-on disengagement positions once it satisfies itself that there is a stable Syrian military and civil presence in southwestern Syria that intends to respect the 1974 lines. This could well take weeks or months as Israel and the rest of the regional and international actors with an interest in Syria scramble to assure themselves that HTS and its leader, who goes by the nom de guerre Abu-Mohammed al-Jolani (also spelled Golani, as in Golan Heights, where his family apparently came from), has definitively repudiated his al-Qaeda background.
Both Israel and the United States engaged in widespread strikes on Syrian targets over the last few nights. Israel blew up a chemical weapons factory to keep the rebels from capturing it, and the US sought to deter Islamic State forces from taking advantage of the situation. Israel has reportedly been attempting to contact militant groups operating near the border.
HTS has been sponsored in recent years by Turkey, the clearest winner in the emerging state of affairs. However, it does not appear that either HTS or Jolani are prepared to serve as a proxy for Turkish ambitions. Turkey’s relations with Israel are frosty, but it certainly does not seek military confrontation.
Should a Syrian government of the future actually succeed in revitalizing the country and wish to repatriate the portion of the Golan Heights still controlled by Israel, there could be a problem. Israel effectively annexed it in 1981, and most Israelis consider it integral to the country. But any such scenario is obviously quite a way off.
Former Israeli Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami, in an article published online on Dec. 9, wrote, “The swift collapse, after 54 years, of Syria’s al-Assad dynasty has just transformed the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape.” He warned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might use this as an excuse to “topple” Iran as well.
Influential Israeli journalist Ehud Ya’ari celebrated the events, asserting that “Assad’s downfall was made possible by a year of Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, military industries and air defense systems in Syria.” He advised the government to expand contacts with rebel factions near the Golan and extend humanitarian assistance. He also suggested that Israel urgently press the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump to maintain the US military presence in the Kurdish-controlled area in northeast Syria and in the Tanf enclave, and to mend fences with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Israel is clearly enjoying taking credit for initiating the events culminating in the fall and flight of the Middle East’s most hated dictator. Beyond that, its attitude so far, like that of the whole region, is to wait and see.
Prof. Paul Scham is the Board President of Partners for Progressive Israel
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