From Jonah living in Jordan

First of all, Jordan is status quo. Everyone’s thrilled about Egypt, and I think some people went to the Egyptian embassy to celebrate. As for me, I’m getting ready to head back to NY in two weeks. I’m going to stop by the Jordan Times tomorrow to get everyone’s perspective on the situation.

My thoughts? …. There are many variables, and Mubarak’s ouster is a start but hardly the end. The choices of the army–in whose ranks there is obvious dissension–in the coming days will be as decisive as they have been so far. Suleiman is a bad dude, and if military rule becomes permanent (as so many “temporary” situations do) and he ends up in charge, well, then this “revolution” will have accomplished nothing more or less than exactly what Mubarak and his cronies (to say nothing of the US and Israel) had planned all along. I have yet to see conclusive evidence that Mubarak has not just pulled off the most elaborate coup, heist, and sleight of hand in human history… so I’m not ruling it out.

That said, I’m cautiously optimistic.
I think the throngs of hundreds of thousands and the opposition leaders in Egypt are hip to the pitfalls that still lie in the way of a true democratic transformation, and are prepared to deal with them. Did you see ElBaradei’s op-ed in today’s New York Times? He seems to have a very clear idea of what needs to happen to ensure that this crisis has a positive outcome. I still think he’d be a great leader in a democratic transition–smart enough to make the right decisions in a positive environment yet compassionate and humble enough not to seek more permanent power–and hope he emerges as part of the transitional government. As long as those concerned understand that their work is not done and their country is not yet free, there is a good chance that we will see a free Egypt emerge from this. But that’s a big “if”. After all, the regime remains entirely intact with the exception of Mubarak; they’ve cut one head off the hydra but not yet killed it.

Your point about the Saudis is salient and not one that most people bring up. Certainly there are foreign powers interested in maintaining some semblance of the status quo in Egypt (ironic seeing as the status quo has been trying to pin the revolution on foreign influences when in fact the reality is very much the opposite). On the other hand, intra-Arab meddling has its own unique complications, and I really don’t think the Egyptians will stand for having their army bought out by another wealthy foreign state.

(Incidentally, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find out that a proposition to buy off Egyptian military brass in exchange for guarantees of continued collaboration had been floated in Benjamin Netanyahu’s office at some point during the past two weeks.)

So yes, a lot is still up in the air, but ultimately, I think the democratic spirit of this protest movement will shine through to the end. They’ve lost so much blood already; I just don’t see how they’d give it all up for half measures. What I’m curious to see is what the US does, and secondarily what Israel does. Both these countries would have a lot to gain in terms of upholding both their stated values and their material interests by throwing their full support behind the revolution in Egypt and doing all they can to make sure the democratic transition is successful.

Unfortunately, I know policy makers in democratic societies have a lot of trouble seeing past the next election cycle, and everyone seems to be afraid of looking like they don’t oppose the Muslim Brotherhood as much as they’re expected to. I will be watching the movements of these governments in the coming days and weeks as closely as I will be watching developments in Egypt. Mubarak was their client, after all, and their actions in response to his ouster will be very telling.

In the end, again, I’m cautiously optimistic, but also very hopeful. I think a genuine democratic transformation in Egypt (something Egyptian liberals–including Islamic liberals–have been discussing for over a century) would be a tremendous boon to social and political development in the Arab world writ large. After all, Egypt has always been a trendsetter, and there’s no reason to believe that this is no longer true. I just hope that those who have the opportunity to make the most of this opportunity, that is to ensure that the positive ramifications of this transformation are global and not only regional, position themselves on the right side of history.

Best,

Jonah